History of Covid-19

Human coronavirus was first identified in 1965, and named for its crown-like appearance, and found to produce symptoms similar to the common cold.

The Australian Department of Health states: "Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses known to cause respiratory infections. These can range from the common cold to more serious diseases such as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS). This new coronavirus originated in Hubei Province, China and the disease caused by the virus is named COVID-19."

The deadliest known viruses in order of lethality are : Marburg (80% death rate), Ebola (70% death rate), MERS-Cov (35%), Smallpox (eradicated but previously 30% death rate), Hant virus (12% death rate), SARS cov (9.6%), Dengue (2.5%), HIV (2.5%, 32 million deaths since 1980), SARS-Cov-2 (Covid-19, 2.3%), Influenza (500,000 deaths/year, 0.1% death rate, Spanish flu killed 50 million).

From the last 12 months of data from the WHO there have been 1.5 million deaths reported from SARS-Cov-2, giving a ballpark death rate for the year of about three times that of the common flu. However, due to many deaths with co-morbidities being categorised as SARS-Cov-2, this death rate may be lower Indeed, a study in Italy showed that 99% had co-morbidities. A group of over 500 doctors in Germany have called the lockdown measures `wildly excessive' The PCR also being considered unreliable. Current Australian statistics for Covid-19 are given here.

Viruses are fragments of DNA or RNA coated with protein that can invade cells. Once entered, the virus then uses the machinery of the cell to make copies of itself. When the cell dies, the multiplied virus can then infect other cells. Viruses can mutate with time but as they don't have the resources to create their own energy through metabolism are not considered to be alive.

SARS-CoV-2 virus (named by the WHO ) is a beta coronavirus, like MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV. All three of these viruses have their origins in bats. Coronaviruses have spikes on their protein covering that helps the infection of cells through attaching to the ACE2 enyme in human blood. SARS-CoV-2, also has a new feature of having spike proteins in two halves that activate with the Furin enzyme found in human cells, making it more aggressive. This later genetic modification has not been previously found in nature.

'Gain of function' research on viruses is currently carried out in labs around the world. Apparently, the FDA was outsourcing some of this research to the lab in Wuhan (Hubei). There are two labs the Wuhan Center for Disease Control as well as the State Key Laboratory of Virology (BSL-4), which handles the world's most dangerous pathogens. An enhanced Coronavirus thus appears to have escaped the Wuhan lab in late 2019, whether by accident or by design, and spread around the world. Unfortunately, China initially attempted to suppress doctors reporting on the new virus outbreak and made no attempt to restrict infected people leaving the country.

Due to the fact that the US was the hardest hit, and with the ongoing trade war between the US and China, has led to suggestions of a deliberate exploitation of the virus to disrupt the US economy and the 2020 election in order to favour the presidential challenger and remove President Donald Trump.

Data analysis
$$\mathsf{Case \ Fatality \ Rate \ (CFR)} = \frac{\mathsf{Number \ of \ Deaths}}{\mathsf{Number \ of \ Cases \ detected}}$$

$$\mathsf{Infection \ Fatality \ Rate \ (IFR)} = \frac{\mathsf{Number \ of \ Deaths}}{\mathsf{Number \ of \ Infections}}$$

The CFR goes down as you test more people. Hence, the most relevant is the IFR, that is, if I catch the disease, what is my chance of dying.

Hence, in the US with a large amount of reliable data, the overall IFR is about 3X that of the regular flu, with Australia 2.5X. However, the IFR is much higher for the elderly for Covid-19. For the under 50 years age group, both the flu and Covid-19 are about the same at 0.01%. In Australia, for example, under 50 yo, we have a total of 5 deaths, from around 30,000 cases, which is 0.017%, similar to the US figures. Perhaps this explains why Taiwan, although being close to China, currently has only 7 deaths in 12 months, as they took immediate steps to protect the elderly. Hence, it seems excessive to shut down working business with mostly under 50 yo workers.

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